Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
